New analysis suggests that including incineration in the ETS is unlikely to trigger any large-scale return to landfill. If anything, it could accelerate what European policy has long promised but only partially delivered: less residual waste, more recycling, and lower emissions.

The fear rests on a simple assumption—that waste follows price. Make incineration more expensive, and waste will shift to the cheapest alternative.

But Europe’s waste system is not a normal market.

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