Global surface air temperature increase (ºC) above the average for the 1850–1900 designated pre-industrial reference period based on the ERA5 dataset, shown as annual averages since 1940. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.

In 2025, according to ERA5, the global surface air temperature was 1.47°C above the pre-industrial level, following 1.60°C in 2024, the warmest year on record. Utilising several methods, the current level of long-term global warming is estimated to be around 1.4°C above the pre-industrial level. Based on the current rate of warming, the Paris Agreement’s limit of 1.5°C for long-term global warming could be reached by the end of this decade – over a decade earlier than predicted based on the rate of warming at the time the agreement was signed.

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