Human-induced climate change may have intensified the European heatwave between 23 June and 2 July 2025, and increased the number of heat-related deaths, according to a new rapid analysis.

Extreme heat swept across Europe in late June and early July, with temperatures above 40°C recorded in several countries. Research suggests that this heatwave has been intensified by human-induced climate change, which has already led to a rise in the average global surface air temperature of about 1.3°C (degrees Celsius) above pre-industrial level.

The rapid study, led by researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and Imperial College London, analysed historical weather data from across 12 European cities to estimate how intense the temperatures may have been over the 10-day heatwave period, if the climate had not already warmed.

When compared to the temperatures actually recorded, their estimates suggest the impacts of climate change to date made the heatwave between 1 and 4°C hotter.

Using well-established models, previously published results on temperature-related mortality across Europe, and a recently developed framework for near real-time analysis, the researchers then calculated the number of heat-related deaths that may be attributed to the recent heatwave for each city. They then compared this to expected heat-related deaths if the climate had been cooler.

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